高分求翻译Considerthefollowingexample:forthedemanddatagivenintheprevioussectioncalculatetheexponentiallysmoothedmovingaverageforvaluesofthesmoothingconstantµ=0.2and0.9.Wehavethefollowingforµ=0.2.

Question

高分 求翻译
Consider the following example: for the demand data given in the
previous section calculate the exponentially smoothed moving average for
values of the smoothing constant µ = 0.2 and 0.9. We have the following
for µ = 0.2.
M1 = Y1 = 42 (我们在开始的时候使M1 = Y1)
M2 = 0.2Y2 + 0.8M1 = 0.2(41) + 0.8(42) = 41.80
M3 = 0.2Y3 + 0.8M2 = 0.2(43) + 0.8(41.80) = 42.04
M4 = 0.2Y4 + 0.8M3 = 0.2(38) + 0.8(42.04) = 41.23
M5 = 0.2Y5 + 0.8M4 = 0.2(35) + 0.8(41.23) = 39.98
M6 = 0.2Y6 + 0.8M5 = 0.2(37) + 0.8(39.98) = 39.38
Note here that it is usually sufficient to just work to two or three
decimal places when doing exponential smoothing. We use M6 as the
forecast for month 7, i.e. the forecast for month 7 is 3938 units.
We have the following for µ = 0.9.
M1 = Y1 = 42
M2 = 0.9Y2 + 0.1M1 = 0.9(41) + 0.1(42) = 41.10
M3 = 0.9Y3 + 0.1M2 = 0.9(43) + 0.1(41.10) = 42.81
M4 = 0.9Y4 + 0.1M3 = 0.9(38) + 0.1(42.81) = 38.48
M5 = 0.9Y5 + 0.1M4 = 0.9(35) + 0.1(38.48) = 35.35
M6 = 0.9Y6 + 0.1M5 = 0.9(37) + 0.1(35.35) = 36.84
As before M6 is the forecast for month 7, i.e. 3684 units.

Answer 1

请看下例：
对于前面章节给出的需求数据,计算当平滑常数µ = 0.2和0.9时的指数平滑变动平均值.我们得到：
当µ = 0.2时,
M1 = Y1 = 42 (我们在开始的时候使M1 = Y1)
M2 = 0.2Y2 + 0.8M1 = 0.2(41) + 0.8(42) = 41.80
M3 = 0.2Y3 + 0.8M2 = 0.2(43) + 0.8(41.80) = 42.04
M4 = 0.2Y4 + 0.8M3 = 0.2(38) + 0.8(42.04) = 41.23
M5 = 0.2Y5 + 0.8M4 = 0.2(35) + 0.8(41.23) = 39.98
M6 = 0.2Y6 + 0.8M5 = 0.2(37) + 0.8(39.98) = 39.38
这里请注意,在左指数平滑时,通常保留2至3位小数就足够了.我们用M6作为对第7个月的预测值,也就是说,第7个月的预测值为3938个单位.
当µ = 0.9时,我们得到：
M1 = Y1 = 42
M2 = 0.9Y2 + 0.1M1 = 0.9(41) + 0.1(42) = 41.10
M3 = 0.9Y3 + 0.1M2 = 0.9(43) + 0.1(41.10) = 42.81
M4 = 0.9Y4 + 0.1M3 = 0.9(38) + 0.1(42.81) = 38.48
M5 = 0.9Y5 + 0.1M4 = 0.9(35) + 0.1(38.48) = 35.35
M6 = 0.9Y6 + 0.1M5 = 0.9(37) + 0.1(35.35) = 36.84
同前面一样,M6是对第7个月的预测值,也就是3684个单位.