Required:(iii) A firm of consultants has offered to undertake a study on behalf of Envico

Question

Required:

(iii) A firm of consultants has offered to undertake a study on behalf of Envico Ltd which will provide perfect

information regarding seminar attendance during the forthcoming year.

Advise the management of Envico Ltd with regard to the maximum amount that they should pay to

consultants for perfect information regarding seminar attendance and comment briefly on the use of

perfect information in such decisions. (5 marks)

Answer 1

正确答案：
(iii) If attendance = 100 then management would opt for room size A which would produce a contribution of ￡832,000 x
0·2 = ￡166,400.
If attendance = 200 then management would opt for room size B which would produce a contribution of ￡2,163,200
x 0·5 = ￡1,081,600.
If attendance = 400 then management would opt for room size D which would produce a contribution of ￡6,656,000
x 0·3 = ￡1,996,800.
Therefore the expected value of perfect information would be the sum of the expected values of the three possible
outcomes which amounts to ￡3,244,800. Thus, if the information is correct then management should be willing to pay
up to ￡3,244,800 – ￡1,497,600 = ￡1,747,200 for the information. In practice, it is unlikely that perfect information
is obtainable. The management of Envico Ltd are really buying an information system that will provide them with a signal
which may prove to be correct or incorrect! For example, the consultants may predict that demand will be for 300
seminar places, however there still remains the fact that there is a likelihood of actual demand being for either 100,
200 or 400 seminar places. One should be mindful that imperfect information which may be, say only 75% reliable,
might still be worth obtaining. Other than when the value of imperfect and perfect information are equal to zero, the
value of perfect information will always be greater than the value of imperfect information.